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    美股电力公用事业行业-美国公用事业行业2018年Q2盈利预览.pdf

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    美股电力公用事业行业-美国公用事业行业2018年Q2盈利预览.pdf

    DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 24 July 2018Americas/United StatesEquity ResearchElectric Utilities Utilities 2Q18 Earnings PreviewSECTOR REVIEWResearch AnalystsMichael Weinstein, ERP212 325 0897w.weinsteincredit-Khanh Nguyen, CFA212 538 3524khanh.l.nguyencredit-Maheep Mandloi212 325 2345maheep.mandloicredit-Sizing Up A Fully Valued Sector into 2H18Utilities 2H18 Outlook At the mid-year point, the regulated group now appears about 7 expensive vs the S Final decision by 8/31/18lon EXC PJM Fast Start Docket 2H18 Expect to be done in 2018DTE Energy DTE NEXUS Pipeline completed Late 3Q18 Construction began, expected completion 3Q18DTE Energy DTE DTE gas ratecase - final decision 9/22/2018 10 Month Deadline 9/22/18NextEra Energy NEE Vero Beach Municipal Utility acqusition closing Oct, 2018 Expected by Oct. 2018CMS Energy CMS CMS Gas ratecase - next rate case filing Fall 2018 Final decision by 8/31/18, ALJ proposal by 7/6/2018Black Hills Corp BKH BKH Arkansas pending gas ratecase - proposed 10/15/2018 Proposed effective date Oct 15, 2018Northwestern Corp NWE FERC/DGGS Resolution Fall 2018 To be addressed in IRP filingNorthwestern Corp NWE Ratecase filing Fall 2018 Wont file until Fall 2018Northwestern Corp NWE Electric ratecase filing Fall 2018 Plans to file in fall 2018, gas ratecase TBDNisource NI Columbia Gas of Maryland ratecase and IRIS decision Oct, 2018 Ratecase by 10/29 / IRIS expected mid-OctPinnacle West PNW Vote on 50 RPS Nov, 2018 Senate proposal Potential Voter-InitiativePinnacle West PNW Energy efficiency program pilot - ACC approval 2H18 Expected after RPS proposalsNisource NI NIPSCO IRP filing Late 2018 Expected filingNorthwestern Corp NWE IRP Filing YE 2018 As requested by Commissioner KavullaConEd ED Orange and Rockland Utilities ratecase decision Dec, 2018 PSC expected decisionCMS Energy CMS Credit B implementation for tax re Dec 2018/Jan 2019 Gas Late Dec 2018 and Electric Jan 2019Eversource ES Seacoast Reliability Project Decision YE 2018 Expected year-end 2018Eversource ES Fourth ISO-NE transmission ROE complain final FERC decision Jan, 2019 By Jan 2019, following 3/27 ALJ initial decisionDTE Energy DTE DTE electric ratecase - final decision 2/6/2019 10 Month Deadline 2/6/2019CMS Energy CMS Filed next electric ratecase C-U-20134 1Q19 Filed 5/14/2018WEC Energy WEC MER ratecase - final decision 1Q19 Expected in 1Q19lon EXC NJ ZECs selection 1Q19 Signed May 23, 300-day selection processlon EXC PJM Price ation 2019 Expect in 2019Pinnacle West PNW Closure of Navajo coal plant Dec, 2019 Closing upon end of lease Dec 2019Southern SO Georgia Power ratecase filing Settlement Update Jun. 2019 Revisit of Georgia Power tax savings settlementSource Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesRecent Key NotesES Turning Toward Grid Mod Upgrade to Neutral 7/6/2018EXC Mystic Supported as FERC Looks Broader 7/3/2018BKH Piping in Infrastructure Upside 7/3/2018DUK Rate Order Preserves Cash Flows 6/25/2018DUK June 2018 Canada Non-Deal Roadshow Packet 6/18/2018NEE SolarStorage - Cheaper Than You Thought 6/13/2018EXC Forging Ahead - Takeaways with the New CFO 6/6/2018DUK Grid Mod Gets a Nod 6/4/2018BKH Some Quick Bites in the Big Apple 6/4/2108 NEE Pos for Both 5/21/2018DUK Cleaning Up Well 5/15/2018CNP Upgrade to Outper on Valuation Benefits 5/9/2018ED Sizing up Financing Needs Post-Tax Re 5/8/2018PNW Upgrade to Outper Reaching for New Peakers 5/8/18Recent Industry Notes24 July 2018Utilities 2Q18 Earnings Preview 4Electric Utilities Takeaways from NARUC Regulatory Meetings 7/18/2018Electric Utilities Question Bank Regulator Meetings at NARUC Summer Policy Summit 7/13/2018Electric Utilities and Alt Energy DoE-Eyed for the Coal Industry 6/4/2018PJM Capacity Auction Low Energy Prices Push Up a PJM Surprise 5/24/2018Electric and Gas Utilities 2018 AGA Financial Conference Takeaways 5/23/2018As Yields Rise, Utilities Look More Expensive 5/17/2018PJM Capacity Pricing Nuclear Retirements to Push Up RTO Prices 5/14/18Electric Utilities CS Utilities NYC Mini-Conference Takeaways 5/8/2018Recent WeekliesUtilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 7/20/2018Utilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 7/15/2018Utilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 7/9/2018Utilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 7/2/2018Utilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 6/22/2018Utilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 6/17/2018Utilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 6/10/2018Utilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 6/1/2018Utilities Renewable Roundup Things We Learned This Week 5/4/1824 July 2018Utilities 2Q18 Earnings Preview 5Table of contentsSector Valuation 6Weather Updates and Commodities Markets 15NextEra Energy Inc. NEE 19DTE Energy DTE 30CMS Energy Corp CMS 40WEC Energy WEC 48NiSource Inc. NI 57Spire Inc. SR 65lon Corporation EXC 71Pinnacle West Capital Corp. PNW 84Consolidated Edison ED 95Eversource Energy ES 104Black Hills Corp BKH 121CenterPoint Energy Inc CNP 132Duke Energy DUK 141Southern Company SO 156Vistra Energy VST 16624 July 2018Utilities 2Q18 Earnings Preview 6Sector Valuation■ Our take With rising yields, we now see regulated utilities about 7 expensive vs the broader market. With a volatile broader market, the utility sector has been holding up relatively well in recent months despite rising 10-year yields as it derives strength from its use as a defensive sector. The regulated utility group now trades at a 1 premium forward P/E relative to the SP 500. The CS house view on the 10-Year is 3.3 in the next 12-months vs 3.1 in the next 3 months. As such, we now view a -5.9 discount relative P/E as appropriate, implying roughly 7 downside on a relative basis. ■ Sensitivity is 1 relative valuation for every 10 bps move in the 10-Yr. As we illustrate below, if yields were to rise to 4.0, we would view -12.5 as the right discount. That said, the sector can still react defensively even in the face of rising rates with the premium as high as 15 e.g., early 2016 and even 30 Aug 2011.Figure 6 What is the Appropriate Relative P/E for Current/Future 10-Yr Yields10-Year Yield vs Relative P/E Utes/SP Regression analysis 2010-2013 more data at higher yields then 10-Yr Yield 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 4.0Slope of linear regression -0.123 -0.123 -0.123 -0.123 -0.123Y-axis 1.425 1.425 1.425 1.425 1.425Regression result 11.8 5.6 1.9 -0.6 -6.7Apply Tax-Re Factor -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5Appropriate Relative P/E Utes/SP 6.2 0.1 -3.6 -6.1 -12.210-Year Yield vs Relative P/E Utes/SP Regression analysis 2013-2018 10-Yr Yield 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5Slope of linear regression -0.044 -0.044 -0.044 -0.044 -0.044Y-axis 1.126 1.126 1.126 1.126 1.126Regression result 1.6 -0.6 -2.8 -5.0 -7.2Apply Tax-Re Factor -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5Appropriate Relative P/E Utes/SP -3.9 -6.1 -8.3 -10.5 -12.7Average of the two periods 1.2 -3.0 -5.9 -8.3 -12.5where it is now 1.0Source Credit Suisse estimates, Bloomberg■ Stock Calls We reiterate our thesis that integrated utilities with non-regulated business exposure will outper purely regulated names as yields rise. We continue to reiterate Outper-rated NEE for its 40 exposure to the fast-growing non-regulated renewables sector, CNP for a 16 total return potential that has been enhanced lately by strong perance from its holdings in MLP ENBL, and EXC for a Summer of positive catalysts, including three rate orders to bring Pepco’s rates up and likely approval from federal regulators on “Fast Start” energy market res that will improve margins for its non-regulated nuclear fleet. Among the regulated names, SMID-caps should outper the bellwether large-caps in periods of group underperance, and we highlight PNW TP 87, NI TP 28 and CMS TP 49. Among the large-caps, we emphasize DUK TP 85, which is finishing up a series of important ratecases in North Carolina that should help remove the persistent and unwarranted 1x discount for the stock. 24 July 2018Utilities 2Q18 Earnings Preview 7■ Recent underperance leaves utilities at a 1.0 premium. As illustrated below, the sector had been largely ignoring rising bond yields in March and April as defensive in-flows dominated perance. However, with more recent market stability and continued movement in 10-Yr yields above 3.0, the group has definitively lagged. Figure 7 Holding Up Despite Higher Rates – Regulated Utilities vs SPXSource the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service Figure 8 Relative Forward 2-Yr P/E of UTY/SPX vs 10-Year Treasury YieldsSource the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service24 July 2018Utilities 2Q18 Earnings Preview 8■ Utility dividend yields remain 63 bps above Treasury bond yields – but the spread is tightening. Figure 9 Spread Between Utility Dividend Yields and 10-Year Treasury YieldsSource the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ serviceThe current situation where ultra-low Treasury bond yields are lower than utility dividend yields is abnormal vs history. Recall that before 2008, bond yields used to be higher by as much as 200 bps and investors believed that dividend yields should be lower as equities have capital appreciation based on 10-15 “safe” ROEs. We still expect this more recent trend to revert back to “normal” as bond yields begin to rise again, especially as they move out of an “ultra-low” condition and back toward 3.5-4.5 levels 10-year. Hence, we see the current “inverse” relationship red spread in the chart as a sort of cushion for equity prices against the impact of rising interest rates and bond yields. Figure 10 Looking for Green Again – the Spread between Utility Dividend Yields and the 10-Yr Bond Yield since 1993Source the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service24 July 2018Utilities 2Q18 Earnings Preview 9Figure 11 Correlation between Utility P/E Premium/Discount and the 10-Yr Treasury, 2010-2013 vs. 2013-2017Source the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service■ Less correlation between 10-Year yields and Relative P/E in recent years. In the table above, we plot this out for two post-recession periods for maximum relevancy looking forward. Note less correlation R2 0.098 in the more recent 2013-2018 period vs a much stronger R2 of 0.698 from 2010-2013. We would argue that the earlier period is somewhat more relevant since yields were higher back then. In the table below we apply the resulting regression ulas for both periods to a variety of 10-year yields to determine the appropriate premium discount relative P/E for regulated utilities. Importantly, we apply a -5.5 correction factor to all results to account for the impact of tax re since all historic data is based on the previous 35 tax rate. We derive this factor in further detail below.■ Both utilities and the SP 500 benefit from tax re, but utilities somewhat less. Based on our rough assumptions for both categories, utilities should now be trading at a -5.9 discount to the SP 500 forward P/E vs the -0.4 discount that would have been appropriate at a 35 tax rate prior to tax res. This is based on our estimation of risk-adjusted total returns both before and after res and is consistent with historic correlation to the CS house view for a 10-year bond yield of 3.3 within 12 months. 24 July 2018Utilities 2Q18 Earnings Preview 10Figure 12 Risk-Adjusted Total Return, Utilities vs SP 500Utes 35 tax SP 35 tax Implied Utes Premium Discount Current 2020 P/E DiscountDiv 3.7 1.6Long-term EPS Growth * 5.5 10.5Beta 0.65 1.00Risk-adjusted Total Return 12.1 12.1 -0.4Utes 21 tax SP 21 taxDiv 3.7 1.6Long-term EPS Growth ** 6.4 12.8Beta 0.65 1.00Risk-adjusted Total Return 13.5 14.4 -5.9 1.0* CS estimate for SP 500 growth had been 10-11 for 2018 prior to tax res. ** Our estimates here are based on a bottom-up consideration of a few major factors as highlighted in the box below. For comparison, CS estimates that over the past three months, consensus NTM earnings revisions have been 1.9 for utilities vs 3.2 for the SP 500. See the CS May 2018 Equity Strategy Navigator. Assumed impacts from tax res on EPS growthUtilities Impacts SP Impacts0.20 2.31.50 -0.30.31.700.95 2.3Combined impactsAverage low, high-endImpact of lower deferred tax on ratebase growthIncremental utility growth if reinvest tax revenuesImpact of lower tax rateImpact of loss of int. deduction above 30 EBITDAImpact of expensing provision on growth through reinvested cashShift to a 21 tax rate increasesthe discount by -5.5Source Company data, Credit Suisse estimates, CS May 2018 Equity Strategy Navigator■ We assume some increased capex growth and utilities benefit from interest deductibility. Our calculations show a 20 bps positive impact on utilities ratebase and EPS growth from reduced deferred taxes at a 21 tax rate. And while regulated utilities theoretically pass through any tax reduction back to customers, we see as much as 150 bps incremental benefit if these revenues are redirected toward accelerated capital programs instead. For our purposes, we assume the midpoint between 20 and 170 bps impact 95 bps, which translates to a 140 bps increase in beta-adjusted total return 14.3. However, our own rough adjustments to SP 500 growth from tax re would suggest something around 230 bps of benefit 14.8, which is enough to flip the appropriate relationship from a 2 premium to a -3 discount for utilities vs the SP 500 i.e., subtract -6 from the premium suggested by historical correlation. ■ Redirecting tax revenues into capex could allow up to 11 capital investment increase at regulated utilities. As illustrated below, 1 of revenue can support the cost of capital for 8 of investment at a 21 tax rate, vs only 7 at 35. As we illustrate below, increasing a regulated annual capital budget by 11 further translates into 170 bps of additional growth CAGR if fully invested including 20 bps minimum from reduced deferred taxes that count against ratebase. However, we conservatively use a middle estimate of 95 bps to comparing total returns to the SP 500.

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